Bitcoin Forecast – May 2024
May 1, 2024 · 3 min read
Another monthly installment in a playful series to forecast the daily Bitcoin price (USD) over the next month. New posts are published on the 1st of each month.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to invest in Bitcoin. I am not a financial advisor, and any actions you might take based on information presented in this article are done so at your own risk. Bitcoin is still considered by many as a speculative asset. As with any investment, DO NOT invest more than you are willing to lose.
For more details, please visit the first post of this ongoing series. You can also learn more from my article on Bitcoin.
Forecast
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
- George Box (British Statistician)
The above graph shows two things:
The historical Bitcoin price in USD (e.g., The black line)
A daily forecast of the Bitcoin price in USD (e.g., The red line)
The forecast's data can be found here.
Last Month's Results
MAPE*
6.98%
Missed Opportunity?**
No
Ongoing Gain/Loss***
16.56%
*Mean Absolute Percent Error
**If we followed the forecast, did we miss an opportunity to improve our position?
***The ongoing gain/loss from (1) an initial investment in March 2024 and (2) an ongoing trading strategy informed by each monthly forecast's intel on whether to sell or buy/hold the current position at the start of each new forecast
Ongoing Reporting
Forecast Accuracy
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