Bitcoin Forecast – March 2024

Mar 1, 2024   ·  4 min read

The first entry in a playful series to forecast the daily Bitcoin price (USD) over the next month. New posts will be published on the 1st of each month going forward.

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to invest in Bitcoin. I am not a financial advisor, and any actions you might take based on information presented in this article are done so at your own risk. Bitcoin is still considered by many as a speculative asset. As with any investment, DO NOT invest more than you are willing to lose.

Series Introduction

This is my first entry in a series of posts that will be published on the 1st of each month. You can tune in monthly to see my predictions for the next month, along with accuracy results and analysis on the previous month's forecast. My plans are to continue to improve my forecasts as time goes by – The only barrier being the spare time needed for me to do so.

Note: I am fully aware that attempting a 30-day forecast of any asset's monetary value is a lofty goal. Time in a market is better than trying to "time the market", in my opinion. If it was as easy to predict something like this then everyone would do it. This is merely a fun exercise for me to apply various forecasting and decision-modeling methods to a personal interest of mine 🙂


My Background in Forecasting

I studied Economics in college, with an emphasis in Business Analytics. There I gained a passion for Economics, Econometrics, Decision Modeling, and Data Science. After college, I got to work on a number of interesting and high-profile projects that exercised and grew this skillset – Many of which incorporated time series analysis and forecasting. 

About three years ago I transitioned into a support role, deploying and maintaining MLOps tooling and infrastructure for my Data Scientist and Machine Learning Engineer counterparts. Because of this, I didn't get to directly practice and enjoy my skillset in statistical modeling and machine learning as much as I used to. Fortunately, I've had some spare time recently to enjoy practicing this skillset again in combination with one of my other interests – Bitcoin.

Forecast

“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
- George Box (British Statistician)

The above graph shows three things:


The forecast's data can be found here.

Last Month's Results

Forecast vs Actual

MAPE

Missed Opportunity?

Ongoing Gain/Loss

Ongoing Reports

Forecast Accuracy 

Previous reports: 

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